We are seeing a global growth in mining in all countries around the world, even in those that are not yet developed. A perfect storm is about to hit the market and could shift the focus from AI to minerals and electricity. It’s not that we don’t like the AI boom; after all, people have to live with AI or without it.

We’ve shifted from the era of “Petropolitics” (oil and gas) to an era of “Electropolitics” and “Mineral Diplomacy.” The transition to a decarbonized, electrified economy is essentially a shift from a fuel-intensive system to a material-intensive system. To generate, store, and move electricity, we need vastly more minerals than we did for fossil fuel combustion.

In this new era, the “OPEC of the future” isn’t composed of oil-rich nations in the Middle East, but rather the countries that control the Critical Minerals Supply Chain. Unlike oil, which is traded globally with many suppliers, the processing of minerals like Lithium and Molybdenum is highly concentrated (primarily in China). This creates “choke points” where a single country can restrict supply to exert political pressure.

That’s why power is moving toward countries like Chile (Copper/Lithium), Democratic Republic of the Congo (Cobalt), and Australia (Lithium/Iron). But not only that we are seeing “Resource Nationalism,” where countries like Indonesia or Zimbabwe ban the export of raw ores, forcing companies to build refineries and factories within their borders.

To understand why this feels like a “war,” look at the sheer volume of minerals required for traditional tech. The oil world is ending because a car used once 20kg of copper, and now the new (EV) uses 80-100kg; the same applies for lithium, manganese, graphite, etc.

The land mines may not be enough, and now nations are currently debating “Deep Sea Mining” (the Clarion-Clipperton Zone) to harvest polymetallic nodules containing cobalt and nickel, sparking a race for underwater territory. Mining the rock is only half the battle. Refining it into battery-grade chemicals is where the real “war” is fought. Currently, China processes roughly 80% of the world’s rare earths and 60% of its lithium.

As primary ores become harder to find and more expensive to extract, “Urban Mining” the ability to reclaim minerals from old batteries and electronics is becoming a matter of national security.

Electricity as the New Currency

In an electrified world, the ability to produce cheap, firm (constant) electricity is the ultimate competitive advantage now and in the future more than ever. This is driving a resurgence in nuclear energy (SMRs) and massive investments in HVDC (High-Voltage Direct Current) lines to move solar power across continents. A new spike of investment is emerging, and that’s nuclear energy production. In the 20th century, we fought over where energy comes from (oil fields). In the 21st century, we are fighting over what energy is made of (minerals) and how it is moved (grids).

While AI captures the headlines, it is actually a primary driver of the mineral crisis. An AI data center isn’t just software, it is a massive consumer of copper, aluminum, and electricity. We are moving from a world where “data is the new oil” to one where “copper is the new oil.” We are witnessing a transition from the “Digital Gold Rush” (AI) to the “Physical Gold Rush” (Critical Minerals).

The Rise of “Unexplored” Frontiers

We mentioned undeveloped countries who hold significant amounts of rare earth minerals; are they the next big target? Countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia are seeing massive investment from both Western and Chinese firms. Democratic Republic of the Congo has recently rivaled Peru for the spot of the world’s second-largest copper producer. Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia are at the center of a “Lithium OPEC” style negotiation, as they hold the majority of the world’s brine-based lithium.

In developed nations, the “mines” are becoming our trash. Since we can’t mine fast enough, recycling old batteries and electronics is being treated as a matter of sovereign resource recovery.

In 2026, AI makes mining more efficient, but we actually end up mining more, which requires more electricity. We are seeing a “Mineral War” where countries like Indonesia and Zimbabwe have banned the export of raw ores. They are telling the world: “If you want our minerals, you must build your factories and power plants here.”

The “Jevons Paradox” Risk

As AI makes it 50% cheaper and 50% more efficient to run a chip, human demand for AI usually doubles or triples. We are saving energy on individual chips, but we are building millions more of them. Even with AI’s help, a single high-end AI rack in 2026 can draw over 90 kW of power roughly 45 times what an average household uses.

AI is capable of designing the “miracle chips” and efficient grids we need. However, the mineral war is a physical limit. AI can design a more efficient copper wire, but it cannot “create from nothing” more copper into existence. We still need to dig, which is why the “Mineral War” will remain the bottleneck of the AI era.

As of 2026, we are already seeing the cracks that could lead to a “Hard Reset” or a “Cooling Period” by 2030. It isn’t that AI will disappear, but the unlimited growth phase the “boom” is likely to hit a massive wall.

AI in 2030, or maybe earlier, will likely shift from being a “miracle product” to a “boring utility” like the engine in your car or the electricity in your walls.